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Alex Carden

Aisle O'var Academy of Arms● · United Kingdom
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Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger
Current
1343 #350
Peak
1390 September 2024
Record
0W · 0L
Last
February 2026
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Current
1199 #2,938
Peak
1295 September 2024
Record
9W · 6L
Last
February 2026

Scout analysis

Rapier & Dagger

16W · 8L (67%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 58% vs older 75%
▾
Record: 16W · 8L (67%)
Recent half (12 fights): 58%
Older half (12 fights): 75%
Delta: -17%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 24 recorded rapier & dagger fights.
Schedule
Getting ambushed
-2.6 vs expectation
▾
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 4
Over/under vs expectation: -2.6 (4 actual / 6.6 expected, n=10)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
10 exchange-coded matches
▾
Exchanges per point: 0.99
Avg exchanges / match: 8.8
Doubles / match: 0
First scorer rate: 80%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 13%
Comeback wins (was behind): 75%
Stage
Balanced
Pool 74% · Elim 67%
▾
Pool stage: 14W · 5L (74%)
Elimination: 2W · 1L (67%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Rapier & Dagger 11W · 7L (61%) -2.6 vs expectation (n=10) avg opponent 1090
+6 fights in 1 thinner division

Longsword

9W · 6L (60%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 57% vs older 71%
▾
Record: 9W · 6L (60%)
Recent half (7 fights): 57%
Older half (7 fights): 71%
Delta: -14%
Current streak: 1 Win
Based on 15 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Getting ambushed
-1.3 vs expectation
▾
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 2
Over/under vs expectation: -1.3 (2 actual / 3.3 expected, n=5)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
14 exchange-coded matches
▾
Exchanges per point: 1.21
Avg exchanges / match: 10.1
Doubles / match: 0
First scorer rate: 86%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 70%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 60%
▾
Pool stage: 6W · 4L (60%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
95 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Current rating: 1199
Peak rating: 1295 (September 2024)
Gap to peak: -95
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
+15 fights in 3 thinner divisions
Reach
4 events · uk · 1.4 yrs active
2 rated weapons
▾
Tournaments: 4
Countries fought in: 1 (uk)
Months active: 17
Fights / year: 27.5
Rated weapons: 2

Events & fights (4)

Herne's Cup 2026●
February 2026 · uk
11 fights ▾
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2873 ▲644 · 1,202.6
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 325 ▲45 · 1,346.2
WIN
Gabriel Sekutowski● · Academy of Steel● Longsword · Pools Score 8-7 Review →
835 71%
WIN
Andrew Thomas● · Southampton Historical Fencing● Longsword · Pools Score 11-2 Review →
LOSS
Sean Stieber● · Basingstoke HEMA● Longsword · Pools Score 1-10 Review →
863 72%
WIN
Jack Neilan● · The Institute for Historical Arts● Longsword · Pools Score 11-9 Review →
1253 53%
LOSS
Willow Grove● · Exmoor HEMA● Longsword · Top 32 Score 5-10 Review →
1036 57%
WIN
Max McCallum● · The Institute for Historical Arts● Longsword · Top 64 Score 10-7 Review →
WIN
Cameron Dunn● · Caledonian Sword Guild● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 11-8 Review →
906 66%
WIN
Thierry Flekier-Wathen● · The Vanguard Centre● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 12-1 Review →
WIN
Zhilun Li● · London Historical Fencing Club● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 11-9 Review →
786 77%
WIN
Giovanni Ricco● · Culham Historical Fencing Club● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 8-7 Review →
LOSS
Cameron Dunn● · Caledonian Sword Guild● Rapier & Dagger · Top 8 Score 11-8 Review →
906 66%
Herne's Cup : July Open 2025●
July 2025 · uk
6 fights ▾
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 3216 ▼1367 · 1,136.8
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 314 ▼55 · 1,313.5
LOSS
Nicolas Pirot● · Swordpunch● Longsword · Pools
LOSS
Gary Howard● · Wivenhoe HEMA● Longsword · Pools Score 4-10 Review →
966 76%
WIN
Clive Crosby● · Exmoor HEMA● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 10-3 Review →
948 74%
LOSS
Amir Sheikh-Warak● · Schola Gladiatoria● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 0-12 Review →
1298 61%
LOSS
Robert Knowles● · Smart HEMA Clubs● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 3-10 Review →
1667 34%
LOSS
Daniel Antrobus● · Mercian Medieval Fight Club● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 4-10 Review →
Herne's Cup : March 2025●
March 2025 · uk
9 fights ▾
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 240 ▼38 · 1,372.2
LOSS
Karolis Kmita● · Smart HEMA Clubs● Rapier & Dagger · Bronze Medal Match
1193 66%
WIN
Peter Castle● · Wivenhoe HEMA● Rapier & Dagger · Eighth-Finals
WIN
Richard Sullivan● · The School of the Sword● Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 1
892 82%
WIN
Nathan Gould● · Ausardia● Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 1
WIN
Mark Round● · The School of Historical Combat● Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 1
LOSS
Maeve McCormick● · The Vanguard Centre● Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 1
1037 76%
WIN
Sheldon Thorne● · Academy of Steel● Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 1
WIN
Nathan Gould● · Ausardia● Rapier & Dagger · Quarterfinals
LOSS
Francois van der Merwe● · Smart HEMA Clubs● Rapier & Dagger · Semifinals
1260 57%
Wessex League: Oxford 2024●
September 2024 · uk
13 fights ▾
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1416 · 1,295.4
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 173 · 1,390.6
WIN
Rob Newton● · Exeter Sparring Group● Longsword · Bronze Medal Match Score 7-1 Review →
WIN
Lee Kempton● · Exeter Sparring Group● Longsword · Pools Score 10-7 Review →
1016
LOSS
Robbie Clarkson● · Smart HEMA Clubs● Longsword · Pools Score 4-8 Review →
WIN
Okello Janneh● · Clashing Steel Longsword Club● Longsword · Pools Score 9-8 Review →
WIN
Simon Peacock● · The School of the Sword● Longsword · Pools Score 10-3 Review →
777
WIN
Darren Woodhead● · Red Dragon Longsword Academy● Longsword · Quarterfinals Score 10-6 Review →
LOSS
Dario Stagno● · Academy of Historical Fencing● Longsword · Semifinals Score 3-10 Review →
WIN
Daniel King● · Smart HEMA Clubs● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 11-0 Review →
WIN
Luis-Francois van der Merwe● · Smart HEMA Clubs● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 9-6 Review →
WIN
Antonio Rolandelli● · Oxford Sword and Staff● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 10-2 Review →
WIN
Callum Crosbie● · Southampton Historical Fencing● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 11-9 Review →
WIN
Simon Peacock● · The School of the Sword● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 10-3 Review →
LOSS
Francois van der Merwe● · Smart HEMA Clubs● Rapier & Dagger · Pools Score 3-10 Review →
How to read this profile

Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.

Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.

Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.