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Alex Carden
Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Current
1133
#3,920
Peak
1295
September 2024
Record
11W · 9L
Last
June 2026
Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier
Current
873
#1,791
Peak
874
June 2026
Record
1W · 4L
Last
June 2026
Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger
Current
1340
#374
Peak
1390
September 2024
Record
1W · 4L
Last
February 2026
Scout analysis
Rapier & Dagger
16W · 8L (67%)
Rapier & Dagger
16W · 8L (67%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 58% vs older 75%
▾
Form
Cooling
Recent 58% vs older 75%
Record: 16W · 8L (67%)
Recent half (12 fights): 58%
Older half (12 fights): 75%
Delta: -17%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 24 recorded rapier & dagger fights.
Schedule
Getting ambushed
-2.6 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Getting ambushed
-2.6 vs expectation
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 4
Over/under vs expectation:
-2.6
(4 actual / 6.6 expected, n=10)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
10 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Fast starter
10 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 0.99
Avg exchanges / match: 8.8
Doubles / match: 0
First scorer rate: 80%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 13%
Comeback wins (was behind): 75%
Stage
Balanced
Pool 74% · Elim 67%
▾
Stage
Balanced
Pool 74% · Elim 67%
Pool stage: 14W · 5L (74%)
Elimination: 2W · 1L (67%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Rapier & Dagger
11W · 7L
(61%)
-2.6 vs expectation
(n=10)
avg opponent 1090
+6 fights in 1 thinner division
Longsword
11W · 9L (55%)
Longsword
11W · 9L (55%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 50% vs older 60%
▾
Form
Cooling
Recent 50% vs older 60%
Record: 11W · 9L (55%)
Recent half (10 fights): 50%
Older half (10 fights): 60%
Delta: -10%
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 20 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Getting ambushed
-2.6 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Getting ambushed
-2.6 vs expectation
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 3
Over/under vs expectation:
-2.6
(4 actual / 6.6 expected, n=10)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
14 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Fast starter
14 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.21
Avg exchanges / match: 10.1
Doubles / match: 0
First scorer rate: 86%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 70%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 53%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 53%
Pool stage: 8W · 7L (53%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
161 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
161 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1133
Peak rating: 1295 (September 2024)
Gap to peak: -161
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
+20 fights in 3 thinner divisions
Rapier
1W · 4L (20%)
Rapier
1W · 4L (20%)
Form
Building
20% win rate · 5 fights
▾
Form
Building
20% win rate · 5 fights
Record: 1W · 4L (20%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 3 Losses
Based on 5 recorded rapier fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 20%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 20%
Pool stage: 1W · 4L (20%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
50 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
50 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1340
Peak rating: 1390 (September 2024)
Gap to peak: -50
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Reach
5 events · uk · 1.8 yrs active
2 rated weapons
▾
Reach
5 events · uk · 1.8 yrs active
2 rated weapons
Tournaments: 5
Countries fought in: 1 (uk)
Months active: 21
Fights / year: 28
Rated weapons: 2
Events & fights
(5)
Albion Cup 2026●
June 2026 · uk
10 fights
▾
June 2026 · uk
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 3867 ▼721 · 1,135.8
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 1762 · 874.2
WIN
680 80%
LOSS
1302 55%
Herne's Cup 2026●
February 2026 · uk
11 fights
▾
February 2026 · uk
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2873 ▲644 · 1,202.6
- Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 325 ▲45 · 1,346.2
WIN
1253 53%
WIN
786 77%
Herne's Cup : July Open 2025●
July 2025 · uk
6 fights
▾
July 2025 · uk
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 3216 ▼1367 · 1,136.8
- Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 314 ▼55 · 1,313.5
Herne's Cup : March 2025●
March 2025 · uk
9 fights
▾
March 2025 · uk
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 240 ▼38 · 1,372.2
Wessex League: Oxford 2024●
September 2024 · uk
13 fights
▾
September 2024 · uk
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1416 · 1,295.4
- Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 173 · 1,390.6
How to read this profile
Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.
Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.
Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.