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Patrick Shirley
Inactive 35m
Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier
Regional
Current
1098
#1,158
Peak
1106
February 2025
Record
8W · 7L
Last
February 2025
Mixed & Men's Singlestick
Inactive
Current
1543
Peak
1568
October 2023
Record
9W · 2L
Last
October 2023
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Inactive
Current
891
Peak
935
January 2019
Record
2W · 2L
Last
January 2019
Scout analysis
Rapier
8W · 7L (53%)
Rapier
8W · 7L (53%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 43% vs older 71%
▾
Form
Cooling
Recent 43% vs older 71%
Record: 8W · 7L (53%)
Recent half (7 fights): 43%
Older half (7 fights): 71%
Delta: -28%
Current streak: 2 Wins
Based on 15 recorded rapier fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
4 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Fast starter
4 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 2.25
Avg exchanges / match: 6.8
Doubles / match: 0
First scorer rate: 100%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 0%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 56%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 56%
Pool stage: 5W · 4L (56%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
▾
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1098
Peak rating: 1106 (February 2025)
Gap to peak: -8
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
By division
Mixed Steel Rapier And Any Sidearm
6W · 5L
(55%)
+4 fights in 1 thinner division
Singlestick
9W · 2L (82%)
Singlestick
9W · 2L (82%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 60% vs older 100%
▾
Form
Cooling
Recent 60% vs older 100%
Record: 9W · 2L (82%)
Recent half (5 fights): 60%
Older half (5 fights): 100%
Delta: -40%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 11 recorded singlestick fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 67%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 67%
Pool stage: 4W · 2L (67%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
24 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
24 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1543
Peak rating: 1568 (October 2023)
Gap to peak: -24
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
Smallsword
9W · 2L (82%)
Smallsword
9W · 2L (82%)
Form
Steady
Recent 80% vs older 80%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 80% vs older 80%
Record: 9W · 2L (82%)
Recent half (5 fights): 80%
Older half (5 fights): 80%
Delta: 0%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 11 recorded smallsword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 100%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 100%
Pool stage: 4W · 0L (100%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
Arming Sword
5W · 2L (71%)
Arming Sword
5W · 2L (71%)
Form
Building
71% win rate · 7 fights
▾
Form
Building
71% win rate · 7 fights
Record: 5W · 2L (71%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 7 recorded arming sword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 100%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 100%
Pool stage: 4W · 0L (100%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
Mixed Weapon
3W · 2L (60%)
Mixed Weapon
3W · 2L (60%)
Form
Building
60% win rate · 5 fights
▾
Form
Building
60% win rate · 5 fights
Record: 3W · 2L (60%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Wins
Based on 5 recorded mixed weapon fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 60%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 60%
Pool stage: 3W · 2L (60%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
Longsword
2W · 2L (50%)
Longsword
2W · 2L (50%)
Form
Building
50% win rate · 4 fights
▾
Form
Building
50% win rate · 4 fights
Record: 2W · 2L (50%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Wins
Based on 4 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 50%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 50%
Pool stage: 2W · 2L (50%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
44 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
44 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 891
Peak rating: 935 (January 2019)
Gap to peak: -44
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
Reach
3 events · us · 6.2 yrs active
3 rated weapons
▾
Reach
3 events · us · 6.2 yrs active
3 rated weapons
Tournaments: 3
Countries fought in: 1 (us)
Months active: 74
Fights / year: 8.6
Rated weapons: 3
Clubmates
·
The Carbonari●
(3)
Events & fights
(3)
Midwinter Armizare Open 2025●
February 2025 · us
11 fights
▾
February 2025 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 834 · 1,106.5
WIN
1032
LOSS
Daniel Rauens●
·
Wisconsin Historical Fencing Association●
Arming Sword
· Bronze Medal Match
Score 4-1
Review →
WIN
WIN
Bryant Cobarrubias●
·
Wisconsin Historical Fencing Association●
Arming Sword
· Pool Set 1
Score 5-0
Review →
LOSS
Lucas Olson●
·
Wisconsin Historical Fencing Association●
Arming Sword
· Semifinals
Score 1-2
Review →
33 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Singlestick Rank 15 · 1,568.6
9 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2556 · 935.3
How to read this profile
Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.
Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.
Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.
Regional At least one of this fighter's ratings is "island" - their rank/percentile is relative to an isolated regional scene, not the global population. Cross-scene rating comparisons are unreliable.