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Mike Carlson
Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier
Current
1390
#425
Peak
1393
June 2026
Record
7W · 8L
Last
June 2026
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Current
1340
#1,782
Peak
1344
May 2026
Record
11W · 5L
Last
May 2026
Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre
Current
951
#2,558
Peak
954
May 2026
Record
2W · 5L
Last
May 2026
Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger
Current
1162
#710
Peak
1165
April 2026
Record
7W · 8L
Last
April 2026
Scout analysis
Longsword
11W · 5L (69%)
Longsword
11W · 5L (69%)
Form
Rising
Recent 75% vs older 63%
▾
Form
Rising
Recent 75% vs older 63%
Record: 11W · 5L (69%)
Recent half (8 fights): 75%
Older half (8 fights): 63%
Delta: +12%
Current streak: 2 Wins
Based on 16 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Comfort bracket
+1.7 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Comfort bracket
+1.7 vs expectation
Over/under vs expectation:
+1.7
(9 actual / 7.3 expected, n=12)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 90%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 90%
Pool stage: 9W · 1L (90%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
▾
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1340
Peak rating: 1344 (May 2026)
Gap to peak: -4
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Longsword (Tier B)
6W · 2L
(75%)
+1.4 vs expectation
(n=8)
avg opponent 1189
+8 fights in 2 thinner divisions
Rapier
7W · 8L (47%)
Rapier
7W · 8L (47%)
Form
Rising
Recent 57% vs older 43%
▾
Form
Rising
Recent 57% vs older 43%
Record: 7W · 8L (47%)
Recent half (7 fights): 57%
Older half (7 fights): 43%
Delta: +14%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 15 recorded rapier fights.
Schedule
Punching up
+0.6 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Punching up
+0.6 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 1
Over/under vs expectation:
+0.6
(3 actual / 2.4 expected, n=6)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 50%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 50%
Pool stage: 6W · 6L (50%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
▾
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1390
Peak rating: 1393 (June 2026)
Gap to peak: -2
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
+15 fights in 3 thinner divisions
Rapier & Dagger
3W · 6L (33%)
Rapier & Dagger
3W · 6L (33%)
Form
Steady
Recent 25% vs older 25%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 25% vs older 25%
Record: 3W · 6L (33%)
Recent half (4 fights): 25%
Older half (4 fights): 25%
Delta: 0%
Current streak: 1 Win
Based on 9 recorded rapier & dagger fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
Pool stage: 2W · 4L (33%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Sabre
2W · 5L (29%)
Sabre
2W · 5L (29%)
Form
Building
29% win rate · 7 fights
▾
Form
Building
29% win rate · 7 fights
Record: 2W · 5L (29%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 7 recorded sabre fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 1
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
4 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Measured
4 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.23
Avg exchanges / match: 6.8
Doubles / match: 1.25
First scorer rate: 25%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 100%
Comeback wins (was behind): 100%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
Pool stage: 2W · 4L (33%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
▾
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 951
Peak rating: 954 (May 2026)
Gap to peak: -2
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
+7 fights in 2 thinner divisions
Reach
5 events · us · 4 mo active
3 rated weapons
▾
Reach
5 events · us · 4 mo active
3 rated weapons
Tournaments: 5
Countries fought in: 1 (us)
Months active: 4
Fights / year: 141
Rated weapons: 3
Clubmates
·
F3 Sword Academy●
(29)
- Sawyer Freschi●
- Aaron Yang●
- Eric Zhong●
- Ashton Warren●
- Cameron Rasmussen●
- Justin Beck●
- Scott Lipsig●
- Hoshea Valdez●
- Hilliary Lipsig●
- Jacob Zillifro●
- Kaiser Wu●
- Stephen Williams●
- Alex Rahman●
- Chiyu Zhang●
- Richard Chelminski●
- Matt Lentzner●
- Lucas Isolani●
- Kevin Rundle●
- Eric Carpio●
- Valory Lakomy●
- Dan Smith●
- Akemy Bon-Flores●
- Kaizen Towfiq●
- Edward Pandji●
- Kyle Suronen●
- Qianhe Sun●
- Joe Li●
- Matthew Tyler McCaffrey●
- Valentine Schissler●
Events & fights
(5)
Bay Area Rapier Tournament Circuit 4 2026●
June 2026 · us
6 fights
▾
June 2026 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 413 ▲408 · 1,393.2
Bay Area Rapier Tournament Circuit 3 2026●
April 2026 · us
9 fights
▾
April 2026 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 676 · 1,165.9
SpringSteel 2026●
May 2026 · us
12 fights
▾
May 2026 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1720 ▲1168 · 1,344.5
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre Rank 2469 ▲662 · 954.0
LOSS
1224 57%
WIN
1139 66%
WIN
1190 54%
WIN
1028 46%
LoCal Swordfight 2026●
March 2026 · us
13 fights
▾
March 2026 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2813 ▲463 · 1,213.2
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre Rank 3061 · 693.5
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 810 · 1,224.7
DEMAS 2026●
February 2026 · us
7 fights
▾
February 2026 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 3275 · 1,159.7
WIN
1143
LOSS
1318
How to read this profile
Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.
Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.
Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.