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Paulo Negro

Maryland Kunst des Fechtens● · United States
Inactive 135m
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Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Inactive
Current
603
Peak
670 January 2016
Record
6W · 9L
Last
January 2016
Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler
Inactive
Current
886
Peak
944 July 2015
Record
1W · 2L
Last
July 2015
Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger
Inactive
Current
692
Peak
745 July 2015
Record
0W · 0L
Last
July 2015

Scout analysis

Longsword

6W · 9L (40%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 29% vs older 57%
▾
Record: 6W · 9L (40%)
Recent half (7 fights): 29%
Older half (7 fights): 57%
Delta: -28%
Current streak: 5 Losses
Based on 15 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Sample too small
Stage breakdown pending
▾
Pool stage: needs 3+ coded fights.
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
67 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Current rating: 603
Peak rating: 670 (January 2016)
Gap to peak: -67
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Synthetic Longsword 6W · 4L (60%)
+5 fights in 1 thinner division

Arming Sword

3W · 2L (60%)
Form
Building
60% win rate · 5 fights
▾
Record: 3W · 2L (60%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 5 recorded arming sword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Sample too small
Stage breakdown pending
▾
Pool stage: needs 3+ coded fights.
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.

Sword & Buckler

1W · 2L (33%)
Form
Building
33% win rate · 3 fights
▾
Record: 1W · 2L (33%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 3 recorded sword & buckler fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Sample too small
Stage breakdown pending
▾
Pool stage: needs 3+ coded fights.
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
58 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Current rating: 886
Peak rating: 944 (July 2015)
Gap to peak: -58
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.

Rapier & Dagger

0W · 2L (0%)
Form
Building
0% win rate · 2 fights
▾
Record: 0W · 2L (0%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 2 recorded rapier & dagger fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Sample too small
Stage breakdown pending
▾
Pool stage: needs 3+ coded fights.
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Reach
2 events · us · 2.5 yrs active
3 rated weapons
▾
Tournaments: 2
Countries fought in: 1 (us)
Months active: 30
Fights / year: 10
Rated weapons: 3

Clubmates · Maryland Kunst des Fechtens● (77)

Events & fights (4)

Longpoint 2015●
July 2015 · us
No match-level data
5 fights ▾
LOSS
Robert Gonia● · Virginia Academy of Fencing● Rapier & Dagger
LOSS
James Klock● · Company of Saint Jude● Rapier & Dagger
LOSS
Toby Hall● · New York Historical Fencing Association● Sword & Buckler
WIN
Brett Farnum● · Triangle Sword Guild● Sword & Buckler
LOSS
Keith Cotter-Reilly● · Atlanta Historical Fencing Academy● Sword & Buckler
DC HEMA Open 2016●
January 2016 · us
No match-level data
10 fights ▾
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 651 · 670.9
LOSS
Karl Bolle● · Capital Kunst des Fechtens● Longsword
968
LOSS
Nichole Lopes● · Virginia Academy of Fencing● Longsword
LOSS
Brandi Florence● · Fenris Kunst Des Fechtens● Longsword
721
LOSS
Cliff Lapolla● · Bucks Historical Longsword● Longsword
LOSS
Matt Walsh● · Mid-Atlantic Society for Historic Swordsmanship● Longsword
1279
WIN
Henry Kenyon● · Capital Kunst des Fechtens● Arming Sword
WIN
Nathan Wallace● · Columbus United Fencing Club● Arming Sword
LOSS
Doug Bahnick● · Virginia Academy of Fencing● Arming Sword
WIN
David Von Bargen● · Capital Kunst des Fechtens● Arming Sword
LOSS
Lauren Hanson● · New York Historical Fencing Association● Arming Sword
Longpoint 2013○
July 2013
No match-level data
5 fights ▾
Longpoint 2014○
July 2014
No match-level data
5 fights ▾
How to read this profile

Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.

Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.

Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.