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Justin Kostelecky
Inactive 35m
Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Inactive
Current
1356
Peak
1388
October 2023
Record
12W · 9L
Last
October 2023
Mixed & Men's Singlestick
Inactive
Current
781
Peak
808
July 2021
Record
0W · 3L
Last
July 2021
Scout analysis
Longsword
12W · 9L (57%)
Longsword
12W · 9L (57%)
Form
Rising
Recent 70% vs older 40%
▾
Form
Rising
Recent 70% vs older 40%
Record: 12W · 9L (57%)
Recent half (10 fights): 70%
Older half (10 fights): 40%
Delta: +30%
Current streak: 4 Wins
Based on 21 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Punching up
+2.3 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Punching up
+2.3 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 3
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 1
Over/under vs expectation:
+2.3
(8 actual / 5.7 expected, n=14)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
4 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Fast starter
4 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.88
Avg exchanges / match: 3.8
Doubles / match: 0.75
First scorer rate: 75%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 100%
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 71% · Elim 0%
▾
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 71% · Elim 0%
Pool stage: 12W · 5L (71%)
Elimination: 0W · 4L (0%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
31 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
31 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1356
Peak rating: 1388 (October 2023)
Gap to peak: -31
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Longsword
5W · 6L
(45%)
-0.4 vs expectation
(n=5)
avg opponent 1138
+10 fights in 2 thinner divisions
Smallsword
5W · 11L · 4D (25%)
Smallsword
5W · 11L · 4D (25%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 20% vs older 30%
▾
Form
Cooling
Recent 20% vs older 30%
Record: 5W · 11L · 4D (25%)
Recent half (10 fights): 20%
Older half (10 fights): 30%
Delta: -10%
Current streak: 1 Win
Based on 20 recorded smallsword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
3 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Measured
3 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.19
Avg exchanges / match: 6.3
Doubles / match: 0.33
First scorer rate: 0%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 100%
Comeback wins (was behind): 100%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 36%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 36%
Pool stage: 5W · 9L (36%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Dussack
4W · 2L (67%)
Dussack
4W · 2L (67%)
Form
Building
67% win rate · 6 fights
▾
Form
Building
67% win rate · 6 fights
Record: 4W · 2L (67%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 6 recorded dussack fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 75%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 75%
Pool stage: 3W · 1L (75%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Messer
2W · 2L (50%)
Messer
2W · 2L (50%)
Form
Building
50% win rate · 4 fights
▾
Form
Building
50% win rate · 4 fights
Record: 2W · 2L (50%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 4 recorded messer fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
3 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Fast starter
3 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.53
Avg exchanges / match: 7.7
Doubles / match: 1
First scorer rate: 67%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 50%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 50%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 50%
Pool stage: 2W · 2L (50%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Singlestick
0W · 3L (0%)
Singlestick
0W · 3L (0%)
Form
Building
0% win rate · 3 fights
▾
Form
Building
0% win rate · 3 fights
Record: 0W · 3L (0%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 3 Losses
Based on 3 recorded singlestick fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 0%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 0%
Pool stage: 0W · 3L (0%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
27 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
27 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 781
Peak rating: 808 (July 2021)
Gap to peak: -27
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Reach
4 events · us · 2.3 yrs active
2 rated weapons
▾
Reach
4 events · us · 2.3 yrs active
2 rated weapons
Tournaments: 4
Countries fought in: 1 (us)
Months active: 27
Fights / year: 24
Rated weapons: 2
Clubmates
·
True Edge Academy of Swordsmanship●
(80)
- Bryce Johns●
- Steven Obrzut●
- Kirsten Meredith●
- Nathan King●
- Kristen Argyle●
- Adam Gerrald●
- Ian Hollier●
- Janna Datahan●
- Mathew Kortuem●
- Thomas Appiah●
- Jeremy Halliday●
- Jonathan Young●
- Matthew Pope●
- James Merrell●
- Arsenii Kalinovich●
- Lorcan Rowell●
- Ben Weiss●
- Yu Sun●
- Ethan Scoffield●
- Joseph Meyer●
- Ian DeJesus●
- Jordan Nebeker●
- Joshua Gardner●
- Eric Powell●
- Mariah Healey●
- Joe Berry●
- Kimberly Grundvig●
- Emma Doyle●
- Luke Schmidt●
- Jordan Rhodes●
- Monica Benavides●
- Gabriel Echeverria●
- Harrison Manesse●
- Laura Tanager●
- Adrienne (AJ) Johnson●
- Avery Barger●
- Connor Mulloy●
- Scott Casey●
- Terron Smit●
- Aaron Wilson●
- Chad Healey●
- Dalen Ward●
- Hilary Koolhoven●
- Jacob Fluetsch●
- James Durfee●
- Lars Flores●
- Rebecca Merrill●
- Nicholas Pavlakos●
- Ryder Claybaugh●
- Samuel Bowden●
- Steven Lindsey●
- Zack Thornton●
- Daniel Donegan●
- Joel Finch●
- John Harmston●
- Michael McConnell●
- Nathaniel Johnson●
- Sean Lambourne●
- Torin Scoffield-Morales●
- April Thomsen●
- Benton Staheli●
- Danny Spencer●
- Ellis Duncan●
- Ethan Spilker●
- Griffin Snyder●
- Julia Le●
- Madison Anderson●
- Oliver Jones-Fierro●
- Robert Fletcher●
- Samantha Monk●
- Steven Monk●
- William McKowen●
- Kylan Simmons●
- Raz Stoddard●
- Garrison Hawk●
- Jacob Jones●
- Jiayu Sun●
- MJ Vazquez-Amaral●
- Gregg Marchant●
- Jeffrey Rawlins●
Events & fights
(4)
Salt Lake Open 2023●
October 2023 · us
13 fights
▾
October 2023 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 743 ▲650 · 1,388.5
WIN
Salt Lake Open 2022●
October 2022 · us
16 fights
▾
October 2022 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 884 ▲286 · 1,244.0
Combat Con 2022●
July 2022 · us
17 fights
▾
July 2022 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1053 ▲93 · 1,138.3
LOSS
905 60%
LOSS
1267 47%
LOSS
Combat Con 2021●
July 2021 · us
8 fights
▾
July 2021 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1361 · 1,088.5
- Mixed & Men's Singlestick Rank 167 · 808.8
LOSS
Timo Elliott●
·
Einhorn Los Angeles Historical Fencing Arts●
Longsword
· Elimination Bracket
Score 4-9
Review →
1090
WIN
How to read this profile
Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.
Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.
Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.