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Nathan Welch
Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Current
1258
#2,405
Peak
1261
April 2026
Record
15W · 21L · 2D
Last
April 2026
Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler
Current
1012
#1,074
Peak
1013
April 2026
Record
3W · 7L
Last
April 2026
Scout analysis
Longsword
15W · 21L · 2D (39%)
Longsword
15W · 21L · 2D (39%)
Form
Steady
Recent 42% vs older 37%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 42% vs older 37%
Record: 15W · 21L · 2D (39%)
Recent half (19 fights): 42%
Older half (19 fights): 37%
Delta: +5%
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 38 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Punching up
+1 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Punching up
+1 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 2
Over/under vs expectation:
+1
(9 actual / 8 expected, n=22)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
5 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Measured
5 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.26
Avg exchanges / match: 7.8
Doubles / match: 0.6
First scorer rate: 40%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 0%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 46%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 46%
Pool stage: 13W · 15L (46%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
▾
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1258
Peak rating: 1261 (April 2026)
Gap to peak: -2
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Longsword
12W · 18L · 2D
(38%)
+0.5 vs expectation
(n=19)
avg opponent 1299
+6 fights in 1 thinner division
Sword & Buckler
3W · 7L (30%)
Sword & Buckler
3W · 7L (30%)
Form
Rising
Recent 40% vs older 20%
▾
Form
Rising
Recent 40% vs older 20%
Record: 3W · 7L (30%)
Recent half (5 fights): 40%
Older half (5 fights): 20%
Delta: +20%
Current streak: 1 Win
Based on 10 recorded sword & buckler fights.
Schedule
Comfort bracket
-0.7 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Comfort bracket
-0.7 vs expectation
Over/under vs expectation:
-0.7
(1 actual / 1.7 expected, n=5)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
6 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Fast starter
6 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 0.9
Avg exchanges / match: 7.2
Doubles / match: 1
First scorer rate: 83%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 40%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
Pool stage: 3W · 6L (33%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
▾
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1012
Peak rating: 1013 (April 2026)
Gap to peak: -1
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
+10 fights in 2 thinner divisions
Reach
6 events · us · 11 mo active
2 rated weapons
▾
Reach
6 events · us · 11 mo active
2 rated weapons
Tournaments: 6
Countries fought in: 1 (us)
Months active: 11
Fights / year: 52.4
Rated weapons: 2
Clubmates
·
Schola St. George●
(60)
- Sheik Bacchus●
- Matthew Miraglia●
- Benjamin Murphy●
- Padraig Stimac●
- Zachary Springer●
- Ed Wells●
- Bryan Johnson●
- Courtney Nix●
- Daniel McLaurin●
- Jayro Saldana●
- Thomas McElroy●
- Gillian Abineri●
- Joshua Beck●
- Darren Foley●
- Zack Como●
- Shawn Gruber●
- Kate Gottfredson●
- Carmine Tenuta●
- Benjamin Eades●
- Nick Rochester●
- Cody Hoffman●
- Dylan Eaton●
- Seth Farrell●
- Jeremy Austin●
- Jesse Crowder●
- Rune McCabe●
- Coleman Shickman●
- Kevin Zeigler●
- Raymond Phipps●
- Reed Cook●
- Andrew MacKenzie●
- Chris Acuff●
- Minh Nguyen●
- Steven Hagan●
- Wynnie Simpson●
- Grayson Swezey●
- Kat Wade●
- David Levine●
- Willam Frith●
- Danny Burgess●
- Nathan Wetzstein●
- Tyler Jackson●
- James Tuten●
- Michael McGuiness●
- Sage Burr●
- Aidan Lloyd●
- Anthony Calalang●
- Ash Fiya●
- Banner Cook●
- Charlie Howard●
- Jacob Adams●
- Travis Chan●
- Christopher Steere●
- Fata Alghifari●
- Jacob Sharp●
- Justin Bellusci●
- Ryan Hobbs●
- James David●
- Jared Munemitsu●
- Marshall Strong●
Events & fights
(6)
Midtown Melee 2026●
April 2026 · us
12 fights
▾
April 2026 · us
9 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2306 ▲339 · 1,249.0
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler Rank 1344 · 882.4
Queen's Gambit 2025●
July 2025 · us
9 fights
▾
July 2025 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2589 ▲824 · 1,209.4
WIN
1023 47%
LOSS
1302 33%
Hot Sword Summer 2025●
June 2025 · us
6 fights
▾
June 2025 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 3413 ▲1145 · 1,111.6
LOSS
1326 31%
LOSS
SERFO - Southeast Renaissance Fencing Open 2025●
June 2025 · us
6 fights
▾
June 2025 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 3413 ▲1145 · 1,111.6
WIN
993 53%
6 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 4558 · 972.0
How to read this profile
Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.
Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.
Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.