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Paul Hubbard
Inactive 27m
Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Singlestick
Current
1550
#34
Peak
1602
April 2024
Record
31W · 10L
Last
August 2024
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Current
1477
#793
Peak
1513
August 2024
Record
57W · 27L · 2D
Last
August 2024
Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier
Inactive
Current
1635
Peak
1658
May 2024
Record
32W · 10L · 2D
Last
May 2024
Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre
Inactive
Current
1116
Peak
1139
May 2024
Record
6W · 11L · 4D
Last
May 2024
Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger
Inactive
Current
1451
Peak
1479
May 2023
Record
32W · 10L · 2D
Last
May 2023
Scout analysis
Longsword
57W · 27L · 2D (66%)
Longsword
57W · 27L · 2D (66%)
Form
Steady
Recent 70% vs older 63%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 70% vs older 63%
Record: 57W · 27L · 2D (66%)
Recent half (43 fights): 70%
Older half (43 fights): 63%
Delta: +7%
Current streak: 3 Wins
Based on 86 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Getting ambushed
+3 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Getting ambushed
+3 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 4
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 5
Over/under vs expectation:
+3
(42 actual / 39 expected, n=66)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Balanced
Pool 72% · Elim 62%
▾
Stage
Balanced
Pool 72% · Elim 62%
Pool stage: 48W · 19L (72%)
Elimination: 8W · 5L (62%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
36 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
36 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1477
Peak rating: 1513 (August 2024)
Gap to peak: -36
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Longsword
51W · 22L · 1D
(69%)
+4.9 vs expectation
(n=56)
avg opponent 1265
Mixed Steel Longsword (Pools)
4W · 4L
(50%)
-0.8 vs expectation
(n=7)
avg opponent 1211
+4 fights in 1 thinner division
Rapier
32W · 10L · 2D (73%)
Rapier
32W · 10L · 2D (73%)
Form
Rising
Recent 82% vs older 64%
▾
Form
Rising
Recent 82% vs older 64%
Record: 32W · 10L · 2D (73%)
Recent half (22 fights): 82%
Older half (22 fights): 64%
Delta: +18%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 44 recorded rapier fights.
Schedule
Getting ambushed
+1.1 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Getting ambushed
+1.1 vs expectation
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 1
Over/under vs expectation:
+1.1
(5 actual / 3.9 expected, n=6)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
4 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Fast starter
4 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.04
Avg exchanges / match: 6
Doubles / match: 0.5
First scorer rate: 100%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 0%
Stage
Balanced
Pool 77% · Elim 77%
▾
Stage
Balanced
Pool 77% · Elim 77%
Pool stage: 20W · 6L (77%)
Elimination: 10W · 3L (77%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
23 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
23 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1635
Peak rating: 1658 (May 2024)
Gap to peak: -23
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Rapier And Any Sidearm
16W · 7L
(70%)
Mixed Steel Single Rapier
16W · 3L · 2D
(76%)
+1.1 vs expectation
(n=6)
avg opponent 1324
Mixed Weapon
34W · 6L · 4D (77%)
Mixed Weapon
34W · 6L · 4D (77%)
Form
Steady
Recent 82% vs older 73%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 82% vs older 73%
Record: 34W · 6L · 4D (77%)
Recent half (22 fights): 82%
Older half (22 fights): 73%
Delta: +9%
Current streak: 4 Wins
Based on 44 recorded mixed weapon fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Balanced
Pool 85% · Elim 82%
▾
Stage
Balanced
Pool 85% · Elim 82%
Pool stage: 23W · 4L (85%)
Elimination: 9W · 2L (82%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Any Weapon
18W · 5L
(78%)
Mixed Any Steel One-Handed Weapon With Any Sidearm
7W · 1L · 4D
(58%)
Mixed Steel Any One-Handed Weapon
9W · 0L
(100%)
Singlestick
31W · 10L (76%)
Singlestick
31W · 10L (76%)
Form
Steady
Recent 80% vs older 75%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 80% vs older 75%
Record: 31W · 10L (76%)
Recent half (20 fights): 80%
Older half (20 fights): 75%
Delta: +5%
Current streak: 2 Wins
Based on 41 recorded singlestick fights.
Schedule
Getting ambushed
+2.4 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Getting ambushed
+2.4 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 1
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 3
Over/under vs expectation:
+2.4
(19 actual / 16.6 expected, n=27)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
3 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Fast starter
3 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 0.57
Avg exchanges / match: 4.3
Doubles / match: 0.33
First scorer rate: 67%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 67%
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 83% · Elim 60%
▾
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 83% · Elim 60%
Pool stage: 25W · 5L (83%)
Elimination: 6W · 4L (60%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
52 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
52 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1550
Peak rating: 1602 (April 2024)
Gap to peak: -52
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Sabre
6W · 11L · 4D (29%)
Sabre
6W · 11L · 4D (29%)
Form
Rising
Recent 40% vs older 20%
▾
Form
Rising
Recent 40% vs older 20%
Record: 6W · 11L · 4D (29%)
Recent half (10 fights): 40%
Older half (10 fights): 20%
Delta: +20%
Current streak: 3 Wins
Based on 21 recorded sabre fights.
Schedule
Punching up
-0.7 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Punching up
-0.7 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 2
Over/under vs expectation:
-0.7
(3 actual / 3.7 expected, n=11)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
3 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Fast starter
3 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.5
Avg exchanges / match: 5
Doubles / match: 0.67
First scorer rate: 67%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 33%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 38%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 38%
Pool stage: 6W · 10L (38%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
22 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
22 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1116
Peak rating: 1139 (May 2024)
Gap to peak: -22
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Smallsword
9W · 5L · 1D (60%)
Smallsword
9W · 5L · 1D (60%)
Form
Steady
Recent 57% vs older 57%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 57% vs older 57%
Record: 9W · 5L · 1D (60%)
Recent half (7 fights): 57%
Older half (7 fights): 57%
Delta: 0%
Current streak: 1 Win
Based on 15 recorded smallsword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Balanced
Pool 67% · Elim 60%
▾
Stage
Balanced
Pool 67% · Elim 60%
Pool stage: 6W · 3L (67%)
Elimination: 3W · 2L (60%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Rapier & Dagger
10W · 2L (83%)
Rapier & Dagger
10W · 2L (83%)
Form
Steady
Recent 83% vs older 83%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 83% vs older 83%
Record: 10W · 2L (83%)
Recent half (6 fights): 83%
Older half (6 fights): 83%
Delta: 0%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 12 recorded rapier & dagger fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 88% · Elim 67%
▾
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 88% · Elim 67%
Pool stage: 7W · 1L (88%)
Elimination: 2W · 1L (67%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Messer
7W · 1L · 2D (70%)
Messer
7W · 1L · 2D (70%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 60% vs older 80%
▾
Form
Cooling
Recent 60% vs older 80%
Record: 7W · 1L · 2D (70%)
Recent half (5 fights): 60%
Older half (5 fights): 80%
Delta: -20%
Current streak: 3 Wins
Based on 10 recorded messer fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Knockout killer
Pool 75% · Elim 100%
▾
Stage
Knockout killer
Pool 75% · Elim 100%
Pool stage: 3W · 1L (75%)
Elimination: 3W · 0L (100%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Dagger
6W · 1L (86%)
Dagger
6W · 1L (86%)
Form
Building
86% win rate · 7 fights
▾
Form
Building
86% win rate · 7 fights
Record: 6W · 1L (86%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 6 Wins
Based on 7 recorded dagger fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 86%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 86%
Pool stage: 6W · 1L (86%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Reach
12 events · us · 2.1 yrs active
4 rated weapons
▾
Reach
12 events · us · 2.1 yrs active
4 rated weapons
Tournaments: 12
Countries fought in: 1 (us)
Months active: 25
Fights / year: 134.4
Rated weapons: 4
Clubmates
·
House of Blades●
(25)
- Mac Siruta●
- Scott Hansen●
- Matt Karmelich●
- Izaak Wadle●
- Paul Ren●
- Aaron Labertew●
- Spencer Gard●
- Trent Burg●
- Gavin Burg●
- Nico Schreck●
- Drew Snyder●
- Tyler Lantz●
- Syrus Chang●
- Reven Young●
- Mason Hays●
- Michael Wolf●
- Cinder Reid●
- Nathaniel Metcalf●
- Max Lerch●
- Megan Miller●
- Max Mull●
- Noah Jedicka●
- Karl Winnekins●
- Jacob Templeman●
- McCellan Siruta●
Events & fights
(12)
Donnybrook 2024●
August 2024 · us
30 fights
▾
August 2024 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 410 ▲34 · 1,513.1
- Mixed & Men's Singlestick Rank 14 ▼3 · 1,577.1
LOSS
1556 41%
WIN
1465 57%
WIN
1025 86%
WIN
Ryan Leonard●
·
Hilt and Helm Pittsburgh Fencing Club●
Singlestick
· Elimination Bracket
Score 8-6
Review →
LOSS
790 84%
WIN
Jessica Young●
·
Baerswords School of Western Martial Arts●
Rapier
· Elimination Bracket
Score 10-6
Review →
WIN
WIN
Bryan Howard●
·
Baerswords School of Western Martial Arts●
Rapier
· Quarterfinals
Score 10-7
Review →
LOSS
Jessica Young●
·
Baerswords School of Western Martial Arts●
Smallsword
· Eighth-Finals
Score 10-6
Review →
SwordStrong KC 2024●
May 2024 · us
40 fights
▾
May 2024 · us
26 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 400 ▲14 · 1,506.7
- Mixed & Men's Singlestick Rank 13 ▲14 · 1,602.6
March into SwordStrong 2024●
March 2024 · us
12 fights
▾
March 2024 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 414 ▲182 · 1,501.2
LOSS
1748 13%
Gesellen Fechten 2023●
October 2023 · us
39 fights
▾
October 2023 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 532 ▼96 · 1,451.6
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 79 · 1,527.8
LOSS
1047 81%
LOSS
Ryan Collins●
·
Baerswords School of Western Martial Arts●
Longsword
· First Round of Pools
Score 1-2
Review →
WIN
Ronan Davis●
·
Cymbrogi School of Western Martial Arts●
Longsword
· First Round of Pools
Score 2-0
Review →
939 82%
WIN
1252 70%
WIN
Josh Saito●
·
Dallas School of Historical Fencing●
Mixed Weapon
· First Round of Pools
Score 3-0
Review →
WIN
Jonathan Evans●
·
Sword Inquisition●
Mixed Weapon
· First Round of Pools
Score 2-0 · 1 double
Review →
DRAW
Sam Starrett●
·
Cymbrogi School of Western Martial Arts●
Mixed Weapon
· First Round of Pools
Score 1-1 · 1 double
Review →
25 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 506 ▲302 · 1,419.3
- Mixed & Men's Singlestick Rank 20 ▲6 · 1,504.5
Donnybrook 2023●
August 2023 · us
26 fights
▾
August 2023 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 422 ▲37 · 1,478.5
- Mixed & Men's Singlestick Rank 19 ▼2 · 1,511.2
LOSS
1170 69%
WIN
Chase Cunningham●
·
Heartland HEMA Historical Fencing Club●
Singlestick
· Pool Set 1
Score 5-1
Review →
892 76%
WIN
Braden Thompson●
·
Medieval Martial Arts Academy●
Singlestick
· Pool Set 1
Score 9-4 · 1 double
Review →
WIN
Bryan Howard●
·
Baerswords School of Western Martial Arts●
Singlestick
· Pool Set 1
Score 9-3
Review →
1160 76%
LOSS
Daniel Rauens●
·
Wisconsin Historical Fencing Association●
Mixed Weapon
· Eighth-Finals
Score 8-10
Review →
WIN
Drew Hutchinson●
·
Tattershall School of Defense●
Mixed Weapon
· Elimination Bracket
Score 9-3
Review →
WIN
WIN
Lake Hall●
·
Heartland HEMA Historical Fencing Club●
Rapier
· Pool Set 1
Score 7-2 · 1 double
Review →
SwordStrong KC 2023●
May 2023 · us
30 fights
▾
May 2023 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 420 ▲86 · 1,465.1
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre Rank 754 ▲131 · 957.3
- Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 52 · 1,479.8
LOSS
1718 18%
LOSS
Bryce Lowman●
·
Heartland HEMA Historical Fencing Club●
Rapier & Dagger
· Semifinals
Score 4-4
Review →
LOSS
1503 21%
9 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 506 ▲302 · 1,419.3
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre Rank 885 · 803.7
Battle of Buffalo 2022●
September 2022 · us
8 fights
▾
September 2022 · us
LOSS
1718 13%
Cornhusker State Games 2022●
July 2022 · us
17 fights
▾
July 2022 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1191 ▲88 · 1,093.0
- Mixed & Men's Singlestick Rank 16 ▲23 · 1,441.2
WIN
1502 34%
LOSS
Lucas Olson●
·
Wisconsin Historical Fencing Association●
Singlestick
· Bronze Medal Match
Score 9-5
Review →
1479 47%
WIN
Donnybrook 2022●
June 2022 · us
18 fights
▾
June 2022 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1279 · 1,042.0
- Mixed & Men's Singlestick Rank 39 · 1,262.4
How to read this profile
Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.
Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.
Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.