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Joel Overly
Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Current
1585
#387
Peak
1603
October 2024
Record
63W · 31L · 1407D
Last
February 2026
Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler
Current
1427
#274
Peak
1484
July 2022
Record
17W · 10L
Last
July 2025
Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier
Current
1470
#274
Peak
1493
October 2024
Record
12W · 4L · 3D
Last
October 2024
Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre
Inactive
Current
826
Peak
853
February 2022
Record
0W · 2L
Last
February 2022
Mixed & Men's Singlestick
Inactive
Current
875
Peak
923
February 2019
Record
1W · 3L
Last
February 2019
Scout analysis
Longsword
61W · 31L · 9D (60%)
Longsword
61W · 31L · 9D (60%)
Form
Rising
Recent 68% vs older 54%
▾
Form
Rising
Recent 68% vs older 54%
Record: 61W · 31L · 9D (60%)
Recent half (50 fights): 68%
Older half (50 fights): 54%
Delta: +14%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 101 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Punching up
+3.8 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Punching up
+3.8 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 3
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 3
Over/under vs expectation:
+3.8
(49 actual / 45.2 expected, n=84)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
25 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Measured
25 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.27
Avg exchanges / match: 6.4
Doubles / match: 0.56
First scorer rate: 56%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 38%
Comeback wins (was behind): 81%
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 70% · Elim 40%
▾
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 70% · Elim 40%
Pool stage: 49W · 21L (70%)
Elimination: 4W · 6L (40%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
▾
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1585
Peak rating: 1603 (October 2024)
Gap to peak: -17
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Longsword
27W · 17L
(61%)
+2.2 vs expectation
(n=38)
avg opponent 1338
Mixed Steel Longsword (Pools)
16W · 2L · 2D
(80%)
+3.1 vs expectation
(n=16)
avg opponent 1259
Mixed Steel Longsword (Tier A)
7W · 4L · 3D
(50%)
+0.6 vs expectation
(n=14)
avg opponent 1533
Mixed Steel Longsword (Advanced)
4W · 6L · 2D
(33%)
-2.1 vs expectation
(n=10)
avg opponent 1522
+11 fights in 3 thinner divisions
Messer
29W · 16L · 3D (60%)
Messer
29W · 16L · 3D (60%)
Form
Steady
Recent 58% vs older 63%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 58% vs older 63%
Record: 29W · 16L · 3D (60%)
Recent half (24 fights): 58%
Older half (24 fights): 63%
Delta: -5%
Current streak: 1 Win
Based on 48 recorded messer fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
8 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Measured
8 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.36
Avg exchanges / match: 4.8
Doubles / match: 0.75
First scorer rate: 13%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 43%
Comeback wins (was behind): 100%
Stage
Balanced
Pool 68% · Elim 63%
▾
Stage
Balanced
Pool 68% · Elim 63%
Pool stage: 23W · 11L (68%)
Elimination: 5W · 3L (63%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Mixed Weapon
12W · 16L · 3D (39%)
Mixed Weapon
12W · 16L · 3D (39%)
Form
Steady
Recent 33% vs older 40%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 33% vs older 40%
Record: 12W · 16L · 3D (39%)
Recent half (15 fights): 33%
Older half (15 fights): 40%
Delta: -7%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 31 recorded mixed weapon fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
4 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Measured
4 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 2.4
Avg exchanges / match: 3
Doubles / match: 0.75
First scorer rate: 50%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 33%
Comeback wins (was behind): 100%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 42%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 42%
Pool stage: 11W · 15L (42%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Sword & Buckler
17W · 10L (63%)
Sword & Buckler
17W · 10L (63%)
Form
Rising
Recent 69% vs older 54%
▾
Form
Rising
Recent 69% vs older 54%
Record: 17W · 10L (63%)
Recent half (13 fights): 69%
Older half (13 fights): 54%
Delta: +15%
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 27 recorded sword & buckler fights.
Schedule
Punching up
+0.3 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Punching up
+0.3 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 2
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 1
Over/under vs expectation:
+0.3
(7 actual / 6.7 expected, n=13)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
6 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Measured
6 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.17
Avg exchanges / match: 5.7
Doubles / match: 0.67
First scorer rate: 50%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 33%
Comeback wins (was behind): 100%
Stage
Balanced
Pool 74% · Elim 60%
▾
Stage
Balanced
Pool 74% · Elim 60%
Pool stage: 14W · 5L (74%)
Elimination: 3W · 2L (60%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
57 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
57 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1427
Peak rating: 1484 (July 2022)
Gap to peak: -57
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Arming Sword & Buckler
14W · 9L
(61%)
+1 vs expectation
(n=12)
avg opponent 1309
+4 fights in 1 thinner division
Rapier
12W · 4L · 3D (63%)
Rapier
12W · 4L · 3D (63%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 56% vs older 78%
▾
Form
Cooling
Recent 56% vs older 78%
Record: 12W · 4L · 3D (63%)
Recent half (9 fights): 56%
Older half (9 fights): 78%
Delta: -22%
Current streak: 2 Wins
Based on 19 recorded rapier fights.
Schedule
Comfort bracket
-1.9 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Comfort bracket
-1.9 vs expectation
Over/under vs expectation:
-1.9
(5 actual / 6.9 expected, n=11)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Knockout killer
Pool 75% · Elim 100%
▾
Stage
Knockout killer
Pool 75% · Elim 100%
Pool stage: 9W · 3L (75%)
Elimination: 3W · 0L (100%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
22 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
22 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1470
Peak rating: 1493 (October 2024)
Gap to peak: -22
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Singlestick
1W · 3L (25%)
Singlestick
1W · 3L (25%)
Form
Building
25% win rate · 4 fights
▾
Form
Building
25% win rate · 4 fights
Record: 1W · 3L (25%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 4 recorded singlestick fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 25%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 25%
Pool stage: 1W · 3L (25%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
48 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
48 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 875
Peak rating: 923 (February 2019)
Gap to peak: -48
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Basket-Hilted Broadsword
1W · 2L · 1D (25%)
Basket-Hilted Broadsword
1W · 2L · 1D (25%)
Form
Building
25% win rate · 4 fights
▾
Form
Building
25% win rate · 4 fights
Record: 1W · 2L · 1D (25%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 4 recorded basket-hilted broadsword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Sample too small
Stage breakdown pending
▾
Stage
Sample too small
Stage breakdown pending
Pool stage: needs 3+ coded fights.
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Sabre
0W · 2L (0%)
Sabre
0W · 2L (0%)
Form
Building
0% win rate · 2 fights
▾
Form
Building
0% win rate · 2 fights
Record: 0W · 2L (0%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 2 recorded sabre fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
High tempo
3 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
High tempo
3 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 2.75
Avg exchanges / match: 11
Doubles / match: 2
First scorer rate: 33%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 100%
Stage
Sample too small
Stage breakdown pending
▾
Stage
Sample too small
Stage breakdown pending
Pool stage: needs 3+ coded fights.
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
26 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
26 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 826
Peak rating: 853 (February 2022)
Gap to peak: -26
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Reach
15 events · us · 7.1 yrs active
5 rated weapons
▾
Reach
15 events · us · 7.1 yrs active
5 rated weapons
Tournaments: 15
Countries fought in: 1 (us)
Months active: 85
Fights / year: 33.3
Rated weapons: 5
Clubmates
·
En Garde Fencing●
(43)
- Chandler Brown●
- Alexander Laslavic●
- Christian Jacob Peralta●
- Alanna Wendt●
- Kat Fraser●
- Marcus Stobbe●
- Jay Trojan●
- Erik Copley●
- Finnian Beazlie●
- Jonathan Han●
- Nathan Antill●
- Michael Soto●
- Mark Logan●
- River Robinson●
- Kyle Lazzarevich●
- Kira Baylor●
- Jeremiah Becker●
- David Leyba●
- Fleur Richau●
- Jordan Hinds●
- Gavin Brunamonte●
- Johnathan Bartlett●
- Samuel Placke●
- Spencer Vero●
- Ivan Talev●
- Ivar Bjornsson●
- Chase Moser●
- Lucas Carr●
- John Sullins●
- Sid Hess●
- Susana Jackson●
- Rodney Bruner●
- Joshua Sorchik●
- Jack Wyatt●
- Joe Wilson●
- Kyle Collis●
- Toby Hall●
- Johnathan Eldridge●
- James Garvisch●
- Jayson Tostie●
- Robert Hembree●
- Eric Baldwin●
- Jesus Gonzalez●
Events & fights
(16)
DEMAS 2026●
February 2026 · us
3 fights
▾
February 2026 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 328 ▲22 · 1,597.6
CombatCon 2025●
July 2025 · us
15 fights
▾
July 2025 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 301 ▲12 · 1,598.4
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler Rank 237 ▼10 · 1,441.5
WIN
1471 71%
WIN
1059 88%
LOSS
Christopher Soohoo●
·
Einhorn Los Angeles Historical Fencing Arts●
Longsword
· Pools
Score 3-7
Review →
1771 23%
LOSS
Christopher Soohoo●
·
Einhorn Los Angeles Historical Fencing Arts●
Longsword
· Top 16
Score 3-7
Review →
1771 23%
WIN
Thomas Spencer●
·
Ironwood Historic Swordsmanship●
Sword & Buckler
· Pools
Score 9-4 · 1 double
Review →
982 78%
WIN
Harriet Coates●
·
Phoenix Society of Historical Swordsmanship●
Messer
· Pools
Score 9-0 · 1 double
Review →
WIN
Bayou Fecht 2024●
May 2024 · us
19 fights
▾
May 2024 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 228 ▲126 · 1,588.0
WIN
901 90%
WIN
1399 55%
LOSS
Nicholas Lozuk●
·
Historical Swordfighting Guild of UT Dallas●
Longsword
· Pool Set 1
Score 0-3 · 2 doubles
Review →
1425 63%
29 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 224 ▲40 · 1,603.3
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 145 ▲54 · 1,493.3
8 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 228 ▲126 · 1,588.0
Gesellen Fechten 2023●
October 2023 · us
24 fights
▾
October 2023 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 299 ▲184 · 1,536.5
WIN
1180 70%
WIN
1488 49%
WIN
Jakob Seehaas●
·
Baerswords School of Western Martial Arts●
Longsword
· First Round of Pools
Score 2-1
Review →
1267 68%
WIN
1095 68%
WIN
1398 63%
LOSS
WIN
Elliot Robinson●
·
Schule des inneren Schwertes●
Mixed Weapon
· First Round of Pools
Score 1-0 · 2 doubles
Review →
WIN
Josh Saito●
·
Dallas School of Historical Fencing●
Mixed Weapon
· First Round of Pools
Score 2-1
Review →
AG Open 2023●
May 2023 · us
12 fights
▾
May 2023 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 410 ▼8 · 1,468.7
14 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 410 ▼8 · 1,468.7
Gesellen Fechten 2022●
October 2022 · us
20 fights
▾
October 2022 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 312 ▲142 · 1,474.1
WIN
1021 73%
LOSS
Jacob McDonald●
·
Cymbrogi School of Western Martial Arts●
Longsword
· Pool Set 1
Score 1-2
Review →
1591 28%
LOSS
Derek Nash●
·
Cymbrogi School of Western Martial Arts●
Mixed Weapon
· Elimination Bracket
Score 1-3
Review →
LOSS
Clark Simon●
·
Dallas School of Historical Fencing●
Mixed Weapon
· Pool Set 1
Score 0-2 · 3 doubles
Review →
Combat Con 2022●
July 2022 · us
21 fights
▾
July 2022 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 422 ▲62 · 1,403.7
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler Rank 56 ▲40 · 1,484.5
LOSS
1733 17%
WIN
Abraham Madrid●
·
Phoenix Society of Historical Swordsmanship●
Longsword
· Pool Set 1
Score 6-3
Review →
WIN
1209 59%
WIN
994 58%
4 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler Rank 92 ▲19 · 1,359.5
SoCal Swordfight 2022●
February 2022 · us
12 fights
▾
February 2022 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 358 ▼56 · 1,362.5
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre Rank 418 · 853.0
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 50 · 1,439.8
LOSS
1472 48%
LOSS
Michael Schachtner●
·
Tattershall School of Defense●
Sabre
· Pool Set 1
Score 4-7 · 2 doubles
Review →
1245
WIN
Michael Schachtner●
·
Tattershall School of Defense●
Rapier
· Pool Set 1
Score 4-7 · 2 doubles
Review →
WIN
Justin Moorman●
·
Los Angeles Historical Martial Arts Society●
Rapier
· Quarterfinals
Score 7-3
Review →
Gesellen Fechten 2021●
October 2021 · us
24 fights
▾
October 2021 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 386 ▲308 · 1,407.3
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler Rank 143 ▲179 · 1,329.0
LOSS
Michael Roth●
·
Heartland HEMA Historical Fencing Club●
Sword & Buckler
· Bronze Medal Match
Score 0-2
Review →
1535 26%
WIN
Brennan McCampbell●
·
Tattershall School of Defense●
Sword & Buckler
· Pool Set 1
Score 4-0 · 1 double
Review →
WIN
Ryan Hetchler●
·
Cymbrogi School of Western Martial Arts●
Sword & Buckler
· Pool Set 1
Score 2-1
Review →
1262 46%
LOSS
Mark Smead●
·
San Luis Valley Swordguild●
Sword & Buckler
· Pool Set 1
Score 1-2 · 2 doubles
Review →
1097 49%
WIN
Anthony Buonomo●
·
Austin Historical Weapons Guild●
Sword & Buckler
· Quarterfinals
Score 2-0
Review →
1577 27%
LOSS
Michael Hakes●
·
Cymbrogi School of Western Martial Arts●
Messer
· Bronze Medal Match
Score 0-3
Review →
WIN
WIN
SoCal Swordfight 2020●
February 2020 · us
6 fights
▾
February 2020 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1069 ▲1152 · 1,304.8
WIN
1324 43%
WIN
1104 48%
LOSS
1428 42%
LOSS
1626 28%
SoCal Swordfight 2019●
February 2019 · us
12 fights
▾
February 2019 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1885 · 1,082.6
- Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler Rank 514 · 1,068.8
- Mixed & Men's Singlestick Rank 328 · 923.6
Edward Messerhands 2024○
August 2024
No match-level data
13 fights
▾
August 2024
No match-level data
How to read this profile
Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.
Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.
Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.