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Newt Kelbley
Inactive 26m
Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier
Current
1159
#981
Peak
1181
October 2024
Record
20W · 21L
Last
October 2025
Underrepresented Genders and Women's Steel Single Rapier
Regional
Current
1433
#23
Peak
1454
June 2024
Record
20W · 21L
Last
June 2024
Underrepresented Genders & Women's Steel Longsword
Current
1192
#473
Peak
1211
June 2024
Record
6W · 5L
Last
June 2024
Women's Steel Single Rapier
Inactive
Current
1320
Peak
1335
May 2024
Record
20W · 21L
Last
May 2024
Women's Steel Longsword
Inactive
Current
1101
Peak
1117
May 2024
Record
6W · 5L
Last
May 2024
Underrepresented Genders & Women's Steel Sabre
Inactive
Current
1013
Peak
1028
May 2024
Record
1W · 4L
Last
May 2024
Women's Steel Sabre
Inactive
Current
999
Peak
1015
May 2024
Record
1W · 4L
Last
May 2024
Scout analysis
Rapier
25W · 22L (53%)
Rapier
25W · 22L (53%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 30% vs older 74%
▾
Form
Cooling
Recent 30% vs older 74%
Record: 25W · 22L (53%)
Recent half (23 fights): 30%
Older half (23 fights): 74%
Delta: -44%
Current streak: 1 Win
Based on 47 recorded rapier fights.
Schedule
Punching up
0 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Punching up
0 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 1
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 1
Over/under vs expectation:
0
(10 actual / 10 expected, n=21)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
3 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Measured
3 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.48
Avg exchanges / match: 10.3
Doubles / match: 0.33
First scorer rate: 33%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 50%
Stage
Knockout killer
Pool 51% · Elim 71%
▾
Stage
Knockout killer
Pool 51% · Elim 71%
Pool stage: 19W · 18L (51%)
Elimination: 5W · 2L (71%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
20 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
20 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1433
Peak rating: 1454 (June 2024)
Gap to peak: -20
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
By division
Mixed Steel Single Rapier
6W · 14L
(30%)
-0.3 vs expectation
(n=11)
avg opponent 1230
Women's Steel Single Rapier
10W · 2L
(83%)
avg opponent 1029
Underrepresented Genders Steel Single Rapier
6W · 2L
(75%)
+0.3 vs expectation
(n=6)
avg opponent 1197
+7 fights in 1 thinner division
Longsword
9W · 7L (56%)
Longsword
9W · 7L (56%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 50% vs older 63%
▾
Form
Cooling
Recent 50% vs older 63%
Record: 9W · 7L (56%)
Recent half (8 fights): 50%
Older half (8 fights): 63%
Delta: -13%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 16 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Comfort bracket
-0.3 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Comfort bracket
-0.3 vs expectation
Over/under vs expectation:
-0.3
(2 actual / 2.3 expected, n=5)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 67% · Elim 25%
▾
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 67% · Elim 25%
Pool stage: 8W · 4L (67%)
Elimination: 1W · 3L (25%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
▾
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1192
Peak rating: 1211 (June 2024)
Gap to peak: -19
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
By division
Women's Steel Longsword
6W · 4L
(60%)
avg opponent 1146
+6 fights in 1 thinner division
Smallsword
7W · 4L (64%)
Smallsword
7W · 4L (64%)
Form
Steady
Recent 60% vs older 60%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 60% vs older 60%
Record: 7W · 4L (64%)
Recent half (5 fights): 60%
Older half (5 fights): 60%
Delta: 0%
Current streak: 2 Wins
Based on 11 recorded smallsword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 71% · Elim 50%
▾
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 71% · Elim 50%
Pool stage: 5W · 2L (71%)
Elimination: 2W · 2L (50%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
Sabre
2W · 8L (20%)
Sabre
2W · 8L (20%)
Form
Steady
Recent 20% vs older 20%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 20% vs older 20%
Record: 2W · 8L (20%)
Recent half (5 fights): 20%
Older half (5 fights): 20%
Delta: 0%
Current streak: 3 Losses
Based on 10 recorded sabre fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 20%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 20%
Pool stage: 2W · 8L (20%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
▾
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1013
Peak rating: 1028 (May 2024)
Gap to peak: -15
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
Arming Sword
2W · 2L (50%)
Arming Sword
2W · 2L (50%)
Form
Building
50% win rate · 4 fights
▾
Form
Building
50% win rate · 4 fights
Record: 2W · 2L (50%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 4 recorded arming sword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 50%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 50%
Pool stage: 2W · 2L (50%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
Dagger
2W · 2L (50%)
Dagger
2W · 2L (50%)
Form
Building
50% win rate · 4 fights
▾
Form
Building
50% win rate · 4 fights
Record: 2W · 2L (50%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 4 recorded dagger fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Elim data only
Elim 67%
▾
Stage
Elim data only
Elim 67%
Pool stage: needs 3+ coded fights.
Elimination: 2W · 1L (67%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
Reach
5 events · 2 countries · 1.5 yrs active
3 rated weapons
▾
Reach
5 events · 2 countries · 1.5 yrs active
3 rated weapons
Tournaments: 5
Countries fought in: 2 (uk, us)
Months active: 18
Fights / year: 61.3
Rated weapons: 3
Clubmates
·
Edel Fencing Academy●
(11)
Events & fights
(7)
6 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 902 ▲91 · 1,168.0
LOSS
1477 20%
WIN
1224 37%
Midwinter Armizare Open 2025●
February 2025 · us
7 fights
▾
February 2025 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 796 ▼126 · 1,124.1
LOSS
Lucas Olson●
·
Wisconsin Historical Fencing Association●
Rapier
· Pool Set 1
Score 1-2 · 1 double
Review →
819 62%
WIN
13 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 603 ▲149 · 1,181.8
LOSS
1300 41%
LOSS
Albion Cup 2024●
June 2024 · uk
19 fights
▾
June 2024 · uk
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 729 · 1,073.0
- Underrepresented Genders & Women's Steel Longsword Rank 248 ▲77 · 1,211.8
- Underrepresented Genders and Women's Steel Single Rapier Rank 7 ▲4 · 1,454.0
LOSS
1368 42%
LOSS
1713 22%
LOSS
1368 42%
London HEMA Open 2024●
May 2024 · uk
32 fights
▾
May 2024 · uk
Rating outcome
- Women's Steel Longsword Rank 203 · 1,117.2
- Women's Steel Sabre Rank 66 · 1,015.1
- Underrepresented Genders & Women's Steel Longsword Rank 325 · 1,117.2
- Underrepresented Genders & Women's Steel Sabre Rank 68 · 1,028.4
- Women's Steel Single Rapier Rank 11 · 1,335.9
- Underrepresented Genders and Women's Steel Single Rapier Rank 11 · 1,335.9
The Arbor Duels: Smallsword Winter 2025○
February 2025
No match-level data
11 fights
▾
February 2025
No match-level data
Shanksgiving 2025○
November 2025
No match-level data
4 fights
▾
November 2025
No match-level data
How to read this profile
Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.
Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.
Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.
Regional At least one of this fighter's ratings is "island" - their rank/percentile is relative to an isolated regional scene, not the global population. Cross-scene rating comparisons are unreliable.