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Donald Church

Triangle Sword Guild● · United States
Inactive 93m
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Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Inactive
Current
1071
Peak
1158 April 2017
Record
3W · 6L · 2D
Last
January 2019

Scout analysis

Longsword

3W · 6L · 2D (27%)
Form
Rising
Recent 40% vs older 20%
▾
Record: 3W · 6L · 2D (27%)
Recent half (5 fights): 40%
Older half (5 fights): 20%
Delta: +20%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 11 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Getting ambushed
-2.3 vs expectation
▾
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 1
Over/under vs expectation: -2.3 (1 actual / 3.3 expected, n=7)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
3 exchange-coded matches
▾
Exchanges per point: 2
Avg exchanges / match: 3.3
Doubles / match: 0
First scorer rate: 33%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 100%
Comeback wins (was behind): 50%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
▾
Pool stage: 2W · 4L (33%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
87 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Current rating: 1071
Peak rating: 1158 (April 2017)
Gap to peak: -87
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.

Messer

1W · 3L · 1D (20%)
Form
Building
20% win rate · 5 fights
▾
Record: 1W · 3L · 1D (20%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 5 recorded messer fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Sample too small
Stage breakdown pending
▾
Pool stage: needs 3+ coded fights.
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Reach
3 events · us · 1.8 yrs active
Single-weapon
▾
Tournaments: 3
Countries fought in: 1 (us)
Months active: 21
Fights / year: 9.1
Rated weapons: 1

Clubmates · Triangle Sword Guild● (54)

Events & fights (3)

Queen's Gambit 2019●
January 2019 · us
5 fights ▾
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1577 ▲452 · 1,138.5
LOSS
Austin Lottimer● · Warriors of Ash● Longsword · Elimination Bracket
1222 39%
WIN
Krys Earles● · Warriors of Ash● Longsword · Pool Set 1 Score 5-0 Review →
771 69%
WIN
Kate Gottfredson● · Schola St. George● Longsword · Pool Set 1 Score 0-0 Review →
LOSS
Shane Meeks● · Triangle Sword Guild● Longsword · Pool Set 1 Score 0-2 Review →
1187 47%
DRAW
Aaron Shober● · Sword Carolina● Longsword · Pool Set 1 Score 1-1 Review →
1645 21%
Queen's Gambit 2018●
February 2018 · us
No match-level data
3 fights ▾
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1460 ▼438 · 1,050.2
LOSS
Jeff Kim● · New York Historical Fencing Association● Longsword · Pools
1385 46%
LOSS
Marshall Strong● · Schola St. George● Longsword · Pools
1554 43%
LOSS
Sam Spruill● · Clemson Longsword● Longsword · Pools
854 66%
Study in Steel 2017●
April 2017 · us
No match-level data
8 fights ▾
WIN
Mike Erbach● · Warriors of Ash● Longsword
1211
LOSS
Mckenzie Adlai Ewing● · Atlanta Historical Fencing Academy● Longsword
1698
DRAW
Kim Bullock● · Loyal Order of the Sword● Longsword
LOSS
Jason Pajski● · Triangle Sword Guild● Messer
LOSS
Daniel McLaurin● · Schola St. George● Messer
WIN
Stephanie Farmer● · Knoxville Academy of the Blade● Messer
DOUBLE
Aaron Karnuta● · Salida Historical Fencing Academy● Messer
LOSS
William Lindner● · Warriors of Ash● Messer
How to read this profile

Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.

Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.

Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.