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Aaron Shober
Inactive 93m
Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Inactive
Current
1533
Peak
1667
October 2017
Record
72W · 25L · 5D
Last
January 2019
Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger
Inactive
Current
1074
Peak
1129
March 2018
Record
0W · 0L
Last
March 2018
Scout analysis
Longsword
72W · 25L · 5D (71%)
Longsword
72W · 25L · 5D (71%)
Form
Steady
Recent 71% vs older 71%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 71% vs older 71%
Record: 72W · 25L · 5D (71%)
Recent half (51 fights): 71%
Older half (51 fights): 71%
Delta: 0%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 102 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Getting ambushed
+0.6 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Getting ambushed
+0.6 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 4
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 6
Over/under vs expectation:
+0.6
(51 actual / 50.4 expected, n=75)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
4 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Measured
4 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.33
Avg exchanges / match: 1
Doubles / match: 0
First scorer rate: 25%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 100%
Comeback wins (was behind): 100%
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 100% · Elim 80%
▾
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 100% · Elim 80%
Pool stage: 7W · 0L (100%)
Elimination: 4W · 1L (80%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
134 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
134 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1533
Peak rating: 1667 (October 2017)
Gap to peak: -134
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Longsword
66W · 22L · 5D
(71%)
-0.6 vs expectation
(n=71)
avg opponent 1315
+9 fights in 2 thinner divisions
Rapier & Dagger
3W · 2L (60%)
Rapier & Dagger
3W · 2L (60%)
Form
Building
60% win rate · 5 fights
▾
Form
Building
60% win rate · 5 fights
Record: 3W · 2L (60%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 1 Win
Based on 5 recorded rapier & dagger fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 67%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 67%
Pool stage: 2W · 1L (67%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Sidesword
4W · 1L (80%)
Sidesword
4W · 1L (80%)
Form
Building
80% win rate · 5 fights
▾
Form
Building
80% win rate · 5 fights
Record: 4W · 1L (80%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 4 Wins
Based on 5 recorded sidesword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
3 exchange-coded matches
▾
Style
Measured
3 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 1.8
Avg exchanges / match: 6
Doubles / match: 0
First scorer rate: 33%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 33%
Comeback wins (was behind): 100%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 100%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 100%
Pool stage: 4W · 0L (100%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
▾
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Reach
12 events · 2 countries · 6.7 yrs active
2 rated weapons
▾
Reach
12 events · 2 countries · 6.7 yrs active
2 rated weapons
Tournaments: 12
Countries fought in: 2 (us, mx)
Months active: 80
Fights / year: 16.8
Rated weapons: 2
Clubmates
·
Sword Carolina●
(21)
- Thomas Hanks●
- Ashley Hanks●
- Martin Niggemeier●
- Ashley Polasek●
- Cameron Schapp●
- Josh Lucas●
- Matthew Simeon Metrinko●
- Lem Walt●
- Geoff Aldrich●
- Jordan Lee●
- Mason Gibbs●
- Patrick Elliott●
- Philip Arista●
- David Hamilton●
- Theo Griffin●
- Zach Pearson●
- Zane Holmes●
- Chris Shober●
- Connor Hillyer●
- Jake Keefe●
- Joel Ahern●
Events & fights
(13)
5 fights
▾
6 fights
▾
6 fights
▾
10 fights
▾
SoCal Swordfight 2015●
November 2015 · us
4 fights
▾
November 2015 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 45 ▲50 · 1,503.0
11 fights
▾
8 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 49 ▲17 · 1,636.9
Queen's Gambit 2019●
January 2019 · us
11 fights
▾
January 2019 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 102 ▼5 · 1,641.4
LOSS
1638 49%
Fechtschule New York 2017●
June 2017 · us
24 fights
▾
June 2017 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 66 ▲6 · 1,590.8
10 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 54 ▲3 · 1,662.2
- Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 261 · 1,129.5
LOSS
996
LOSS
996
7 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 57 ▼9 · 1,648.3
5 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 47 ▼3 · 1,662.8
Longpoint 2012○
June 2012
No match-level data
5 fights
▾
June 2012
No match-level data
How to read this profile
Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.
Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.
Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.