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Natalie Johanek

Arena Weapon Arts · United States
Inactive 12m

Weapons & Rank/ratings

Underrepresented Genders & Women's Steel Longsword
Current
1274 #347
Peak
1358 October 2024
Record
16W · 18L · 3D
Last
August 2025
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Current
1188 #3,087
Peak
1202 December 2024
Record
16W · 18L · 3D
Last
August 2025
Women's Steel Longsword Regional
Current
1082 #358
Peak
1088 August 2025
Record
16W · 18L · 3D
Last
August 2025
Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre
Current
1058 #1,923
Peak
1064 August 2025
Record
2W · 4L · 3D
Last
August 2025
Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger
Current
1043 #958
Peak
1049 August 2025
Record
3W · 1L
Last
August 2025
Mixed & Men's Singlestick
Current
990 #370
Peak
995 August 2025
Record
1W · 3L
Last
August 2025
Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler
Current
1266 #528
Peak
1277 March 2025
Record
1W · 3L
Last
March 2025

Scout analysis

Longsword

19W · 21L · 3D (44%)
Form
Steady
Recent 43% vs older 43%
Record: 19W · 21L · 3D (44%)
Recent half (21 fights): 43%
Older half (21 fights): 43%
Delta: 0%
Current streak: 2 Wins
Based on 43 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Getting ambushed
-2.4 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 1
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 5
Over/under vs expectation: -2.4 (9 actual / 11.4 expected, n=20)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool specialist
Pool 46% · Elim 25%
Pool stage: 13W · 15L (46%)
Elimination: 1W · 3L (25%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
83 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1274
Peak rating: 1358 (October 2024)
Gap to peak: -83
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
By division
Mixed Steel Longsword 5W · 8L · 2D (33%) -0.7 vs expectation (n=10) avg opponent 1208
Women's Steel Longsword 6W · 6L (50%) -1.7 vs expectation (n=8) avg opponent 1152
Mixed Steel Longsword (Tier C) 3W · 4L · 1D (38%) avg opponent 1048
Underrepresented Genders Steel Longsword 5W · 3L (63%) avg opponent 1337

Messer

15W · 10L · 2D (56%)
Form
Rising
Recent 77% vs older 31%
Record: 15W · 10L · 2D (56%)
Recent half (13 fights): 77%
Older half (13 fights): 31%
Delta: +46%
Current streak: 9 Wins
Based on 27 recorded messer fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Measured
3 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 2.83
Avg exchanges / match: 5.7
Doubles / match: 0.67
First scorer rate: 33%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 57%
Pool stage: 12W · 9L (57%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
By division
Mixed Steel Messer 6W · 10L (38%)
Underrepresented Genders Steel Messer 9W · 0L · 2D (82%)

Mixed Weapon

2W · 14L (13%)
Form
Rising
Recent 25% vs older 0%
Record: 2W · 14L (13%)
Recent half (8 fights): 25%
Older half (8 fights): 0%
Delta: +25%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 16 recorded mixed weapon fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 13%
Pool stage: 2W · 13L (13%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
By division
Mixed Any Steel One-Handed Weapon With Any Sidearm 2W · 10L (17%)
+4 fights in 1 thinner division

Other

6W · 3L · 3D (50%)
Form
Rising
Recent 67% vs older 33%
Record: 6W · 3L · 3D (50%)
Recent half (6 fights): 67%
Older half (6 fights): 33%
Delta: +34%
Current streak: 4 Wins
Based on 12 recorded fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 75%
Pool stage: 6W · 2L (75%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
By division
Underrepresented Genders Any Steel One-Handed Weapon With Optional Sidearm 4W · 1L · 3D (50%)
+4 fights in 1 thinner division

Sabre

2W · 4L · 3D (22%)
Form
Steady
Recent 25% vs older 25%
Record: 2W · 4L · 3D (22%)
Recent half (4 fights): 25%
Older half (4 fights): 25%
Delta: 0%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 9 recorded sabre fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 50%
Pool stage: 2W · 2L (50%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1058
Peak rating: 1064 (August 2025)
Gap to peak: -6
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.

Rapier & Dagger

1W · 4L · 2D (14%)
Form
Building
14% win rate · 7 fights
Record: 1W · 4L · 2D (14%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 3 Losses
Based on 7 recorded rapier & dagger fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Fast starter
3 exchange-coded matches
Exchanges per point: 2.5
Avg exchanges / match: 5
Doubles / match: 0.33
First scorer rate: 100%
Dominant wins (shut-out): 0%
Comeback wins (was behind): 0%
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 20%
Pool stage: 1W · 4L (20%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.

Sidesword

5W · 2L (71%)
Form
Building
71% win rate · 7 fights
Record: 5W · 2L (71%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Wins
Based on 7 recorded sidesword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 67%
Pool stage: 2W · 1L (67%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.

Dagger

6W · 0L (100%)
Form
Building
100% win rate · 6 fights
Record: 6W · 0L (100%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 6 Wins
Based on 6 recorded dagger fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 100%
Pool stage: 6W · 0L (100%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.

Smallsword

1W · 3L · 1D (20%)
Form
Building
20% win rate · 5 fights
Record: 1W · 3L · 1D (20%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 1 Win
Based on 5 recorded smallsword fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Sample too small
Stage breakdown pending
Pool stage: needs 3+ coded fights.
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
Peak data pending
Peak volatility low
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.

Sword & Buckler

1W · 3L (25%)
Form
Building
25% win rate · 4 fights
Record: 1W · 3L (25%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 4 recorded sword & buckler fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
Pool stage: 1W · 2L (33%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1266
Peak rating: 1277 (March 2025)
Gap to peak: -10
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.

Rapier

3W · 1L (75%)
Form
Building
75% win rate · 4 fights
Record: 3W · 1L (75%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 4 recorded rapier fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 100%
Pool stage: 3W · 0L (100%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1043
Peak rating: 1049 (August 2025)
Gap to peak: -5
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.

Singlestick

1W · 3L (25%)
Form
Building
25% win rate · 4 fights
Record: 1W · 3L (25%)
Trajectory needs 8+ fights - will sharpen as more data lands.
Current streak: 3 Losses
Based on 4 recorded singlestick fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate, comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
Pool stage: 1W · 2L (33%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 990
Peak rating: 995 (August 2025)
Gap to peak: -5
Peak is relative to an isolated regional scene - see the "How to read this profile" note below.
Reach
6 events · us · 1 yrs active
5 rated weapons
Tournaments: 6
Countries fought in: 1 (us)
Months active: 12
Fights / year: 144
Rated weapons: 5

Clubmates · Arena Weapon Arts (72)

Events & fights (8)

Fall Fury 2025
August 2025 · us
28 fights
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre Rank 1574 ▲100 · 1,064.7
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Rapier and Dagger Rank 752 · 1,049.6
LOSS
Christopher Willoughby · Arena Weapon Arts Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 1 Score 2-3 Review →
WIN
Dmitry Tolstinev · Arena Weapon Arts Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 1 Score 0-4 Review →
DRAW
Jesse Wilson · Arena Weapon Arts Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 1 Score 2-2 · 1 double Review →
LOSS
Alejandro Anazco · Vier Blossen Historical Fencing Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 1
1394
DRAW
Matthew Losoya · Brandr Combat Academy Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 2
LOSS
Vincent Dominic · All For One Fencing Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 2
1504
LOSS
Aleksandra Shlychkova · Arena Weapon Arts Rapier & Dagger · Pool Set 2
DRAW
733 61%
LOSS
1251 41%
LOSS
1640 28%
LOSS
Dmitry Tolstinev · Arena Weapon Arts Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 1 Score 0-4 Review →
LOSS
Ashley Flowers · Vier Blossen Historical Fencing Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 1 Score 1-3 Review →
LOSS
Seneca Savoie · Arena Weapon Arts Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 1 Score 0-3 Review →
LOSS
Clark Simon · Dallas School of Historical Fencing Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 1 Score 0-5 Review →
LOSS
Jordan Shearer · Arena Weapon Arts Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 2
LOSS
LOSS
Martin Colunga · Arena Weapon Arts Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 2
WIN
Andrew Gregory · Brandr Combat Academy Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 2
LOSS
Ashley Flowers · Vier Blossen Historical Fencing Other · Pool Set 1 Score 1-3 Review →
DRAW
WIN
Danica Driscoll · Arena Weapon Arts Other · Pool Set 1 Score 3-2 Review →
DRAW
Logan Debehnke · Arena Weapon Arts Other · Pool Set 1 Score 2-2 Review →
DRAW
Ashley Flowers · Vier Blossen Historical Fencing Other · Pool Set 2 Score 1-3 Review →
WIN
Logan Debehnke · Arena Weapon Arts Other · Pool Set 2 Score 2-2 Review →
WIN
WIN
Danica Driscoll · Arena Weapon Arts Other · Pool Set 2 Score 3-2 Review →
Donnybrook 2025
August 2025 · us
34 fights
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2714 ▼3 · 1,199.2
  • Women's Steel Longsword Rank 316 · 1,088.4
  • Mixed & Men's Singlestick Rank 358 · 995.4
  • Underrepresented Genders & Women's Steel Longsword Rank 266 ▼72 · 1,282.5
WIN
1409 33%
LOSS
Mac Siruta · House of Blades Longsword · Pools
1333 46%
LOSS
1130 61%
LOSS
1389 38%
WIN
Montana Nicholson Longsword · Top 32 Score 11-3 Review →
822 68%
LOSS
Logan Debehnke · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Bronze Medal Match
LOSS
1210 71%
WIN
946 84%
LOSS
Aleksandra Shlychkova · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Semifinals
1242 61%
WIN
Charlotte Coon · Gainesville HEMA Longsword · Top 16
WIN
1210 71%
LOSS
Logan Debehnke · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Bronze Medal Match
LOSS
1210 71%
WIN
946 84%
LOSS
Aleksandra Shlychkova · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Semifinals
1242 61%
WIN
Charlotte Coon · Gainesville HEMA Longsword · Top 16
WIN
1210 71%
WIN
Montana Nicholson Singlestick · Pools Score 11-3 Review →
LOSS
1383
LOSS
1388
LOSS
Craig Hosey · Guild of Knightly Arts Singlestick · Top 55
LOSS
Thomas Amoroso · Columbus Saber Academy Mixed Weapon · Pools Score 4-10 Review →
LOSS
Samuel Ryals · Gem City Duelists Society Mixed Weapon · Pools Score 6-8 Review →
WIN
Geoffrey Beeson · Five Circles Martial Arts Mixed Weapon · Pools Score 11-7 Review →
LOSS
Beau Hulgan · Arena Weapon Arts Mixed Weapon · Top 56
WIN
WIN
Ash Tyr · Columbus Saber Academy Rapier · Pools Score 10-6 Review →
WIN
Tom Costello · Five Rings Fencing Rapier · Pools Score 10-3 Review →
LOSS
Craig Hosey · Guild of Knightly Arts Smallsword · Pools
LOSS
Dmitry Tolstinev · Arena Weapon Arts Smallsword · Pools
WIN
Dmitry Tolstinev · Arena Weapon Arts Smallsword · Top 59
Hoplomachy 2025
March 2025 · us
12 fights
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler Rank 439 ▲576 · 1,277.6
WIN
Julian Rodriguez · Aegis Historical Combat Training Sidesword · Bronze Medal Match
993 45%
LOSS
Beau Hulgan · Arena Weapon Arts Sidesword · Pools
1562 27%
WIN
WIN
Logan Debehnke · Arena Weapon Arts Sidesword · Pools
810 58%
LOSS
Eric Shattuck · Arena Weapon Arts Sidesword · Semifinals
1614 23%
WIN
Seneca Savoie · Arena Weapon Arts Sidesword · Top 16
WIN
WIN
Ty Weber · Arena Weapon Arts Messer · Pools Score 7-5 Review →
LOSS
Kevin Beahan · Sword to Sword Messer · Pools Score 2-8 Review →
LOSS
Dmitry Tolstinev · Arena Weapon Arts Messer · Pools Score 3-8 Review →
LOSS
Jesse Wilson · Arena Weapon Arts Messer · Pools Score 3-5 · 2 doubles Review →
December to Dismember 2024
December 2024 · us
14 fights
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2208 ▲482 · 1,202.8
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Sabre Rank 1296 · 1,023.8
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Sword and Buckler Rank 974 · 956.2
WIN
Jason Zamora · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Eighth-Finals
1222 54%
WIN
Leo Ambrosetti · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Pool Set 1
930 55%
WIN
Scout Goldsmith · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Pool Set 1
LOSS
Srikar Bollavaram · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Pool Set 1
1302 39%
LOSS
Mikhail Timofeev · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Pool Set 1
1289 36%
LOSS
Srikar Bollavaram · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Quarterfinals
1302 39%
LOSS
Dmitry Tolstinev · Arena Weapon Arts Sabre · Eighth-Finals
812
WIN
Logan Debehnke · Arena Weapon Arts Sabre · Pool Set 1
DRAW
Timothy Porter · Arena Weapon Arts Sabre · Pool Set 1
DRAW
Jesse Wilson · Arena Weapon Arts Sabre · Pool Set 1
LOSS
Jesse Wilson · Arena Weapon Arts Sword & Buckler · Eighth-Finals
WIN
Jordan Shearer · Arena Weapon Arts Sword & Buckler · Pool Set 1
1179
LOSS
Martin Colunga · Arena Weapon Arts Sword & Buckler · Pool Set 1
1713
LOSS
Garett Jaeger · Arena Weapon Arts Sword & Buckler · Pool Set 1
1018
Gesellen Fechten 2024
October 2024 · us
No match-level data
16 fights
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2581 ▲832 · 1,137.5
  • Underrepresented Genders & Women's Steel Longsword Rank 156 · 1,358.6
WIN
Zachary Holmes · Accademia del Leone Longsword · pool 5
1086 49%
LOSS
1010 49%
LOSS
LOSS
1538
WIN
893
WIN
WIN
1032
LOSS
1781
LOSS
WIN
1440
Fall Fury 2024
September 2024 · us
8 fights
Rating outcome
  • Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 3413 · 1,008.9
LOSS
Jesse Wilson · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Elim Pools
1151
DRAW
Eric Shattuck · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Elim Pools
1464
DRAW
Zachary Holmes · Accademia del Leone Longsword · Elim Pools
1109
LOSS
Mikhail Timofeev · Arena Weapon Arts Longsword · Elim Pools
LOSS
Mikhail Timofeev · Arena Weapon Arts Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 1
LOSS
Seneca Savoie · Arena Weapon Arts Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 1
LOSS
Vince Dominic · All For One Fencing Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 1
LOSS
Jeremy Petersen · Arena Weapon Arts Mixed Weapon · Pool Set 1
Texas Audacious Knife Fight 2024
August 2024
No match-level data
13 fights
Messer Mayhem 2025
April 2025
No match-level data
19 fights
How to read this profile

Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.

Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.

Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.

Regional At least one of this fighter's ratings is "island" - their rank/percentile is relative to an isolated regional scene, not the global population. Cross-scene rating comparisons are unreliable.