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Ryan Hayes
Weapons & Rank/ratings
Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword
Current
1246
#2,505
Peak
1292
May 2025
Record
21W · 24L · 1D
Last
February 2026
Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier
Current
1141
#983
Peak
1152
May 2025
Record
4W · 8L
Last
May 2025
Scout analysis
Longsword
21W · 24L · 1D (46%)
Longsword
21W · 24L · 1D (46%)
Form
Cooling
Recent 39% vs older 52%
▾
Form
Cooling
Recent 39% vs older 52%
Record: 21W · 24L · 1D (46%)
Recent half (23 fights): 39%
Older half (23 fights): 52%
Delta: -13%
Current streak: 1 Loss
Based on 46 recorded longsword fights.
Schedule
Punching up
-2.4 vs expectation
▾
Schedule
Punching up
-2.4 vs expectation
Quality wins (won as clear underdog): 3
Upset losses (lost as clear favourite): 1
Over/under vs expectation:
-2.4
(13 actual / 15.4 expected, n=34)
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Balanced
Pool 49% · Elim 38%
▾
Stage
Balanced
Pool 49% · Elim 38%
Pool stage: 18W · 19L (49%)
Elimination: 3W · 5L (38%)
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
45 pts off peak
Currently below peak
▾
Peak
45 pts off peak
Currently below peak
Current rating: 1246
Peak rating: 1292 (May 2025)
Gap to peak: -45
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
By division
Mixed Steel Longsword
11W · 10L
(52%)
+0.4 vs expectation
(n=13)
avg opponent 1129
Mixed Steel Longsword With Optional Dagger
4W · 6L
(40%)
-1.9 vs expectation
(n=7)
avg opponent 1260
Mixed Steel Longsword (Open)
4W · 3L · 1D
(50%)
+0.3 vs expectation
(n=7)
avg opponent 1263
+7 fights in 1 thinner division
Rapier
4W · 8L (33%)
Rapier
4W · 8L (33%)
Form
Steady
Recent 33% vs older 33%
▾
Form
Steady
Recent 33% vs older 33%
Record: 4W · 8L (33%)
Recent half (6 fights): 33%
Older half (6 fights): 33%
Delta: 0%
Current streak: 2 Losses
Based on 12 recorded rapier fights.
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
▾
Schedule
Schedule forming
Expectation data pending
Over/under needs 5+ rated fights - calculating as more data lands.
Expectation stats compare each result with the win chance implied by both fighters' ratings in that division.
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
▾
Style
Building signal
Needs more exchange data
Style signal needs per-exchange match data. Once enough of this fighter's
exchanges are recorded, this card will sharpen into scoring tempo, doubles rate,
comeback wins, early vs late scoring, and more.
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
▾
Stage
Pool data only
Pool 33%
Pool stage: 4W · 8L (33%)
Elimination: needs 3+ coded fights.
Stage tagging depends on upstream division labels - some fights may be uncategorised.
Peak
At peak
Near career best
▾
Peak
At peak
Near career best
Current rating: 1141
Peak rating: 1152 (May 2025)
Gap to peak: -10
Peak rating comes from the highest Glicko value recorded for this weapon.
Reach
8 events · us · 3.9 yrs active
2 rated weapons
▾
Reach
8 events · us · 3.9 yrs active
2 rated weapons
Tournaments: 8
Countries fought in: 1 (us)
Months active: 47
Fights / year: 14.8
Rated weapons: 2
Clubmates
·
Centerline Sword School●
(15)
Events & fights
(8)
Midwinter Armizare Open 2026●
February 2026 · us
5 fights
▾
February 2026 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2387 ▼172 · 1,252.9
LOSS
1429 26%
LOSS
1252 46%
LOSS
1445 27%
AG Open 2025●
September 2025 · us
7 fights
▾
September 2025 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2076 ▼160 · 1,272.7
LOSS
1372 40%
LOSS
1345 38%
20 fights
▾
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1800 ▲454 · 1,292.5
- Mixed & Men's Steel Single Rapier Rank 849 · 1,152.8
Midwinter Armizare Open 2025●
February 2025 · us
5 fights
▾
February 2025 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2064 ▲179 · 1,227.9
AG Open 2024●
September 2024 · us
6 fights
▾
September 2024 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2018 ▲768 · 1,204.4
WIN
977 56%
Midwinter Armizare Open 2024●
January 2024 · us
4 fights
▾
January 2024 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 2361 ▲72 · 1,098.8
AG Open 2023●
May 2023 · us
7 fights
▾
May 2023 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1967 ▲430 · 1,080.6
AG Open 2022●
April 2022 · us
4 fights
▾
April 2022 · us
Rating outcome
- Mixed & Men's Steel Longsword Rank 1219 · 968.2
How to read this profile
Rating is Glicko-2: the number shown is score - 2*RD (97.5% confidence lower bound), not raw skill. Inactive fighters "drift down" as RD grows - not because they got worse.
Hemaratings ratings don't factor in match scores, exchange counts, or doubles. Scout's score-margin and style metrics describe HOW a fighter fights, not the rating tier their results earned.
Hemaratings recomputes in batches days-to-weeks after events. A fighter's most recent tournament may not yet be reflected.